AI-DLC ROI & Business Case Model

Does the AI-DLC transition pay for itself — and can you defend the number to Finance?

Turn this organisation's own delivery economics into a board-ready business case for AI-Driven Development Lifecycle adoption — payback period, Year-1 ROI, and multi-year NPV, built on assumptions you set and can defend, not a borrowed case study.

Payback / ROI / NPV3-Scenario ModelSensitivity Analysis6 TabsExcel Workbook

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Format Excel .xlsx · Tabs 6 · Guide 15-page PDF

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Instant download · No macros · Excel 2016+

The Problem

A business case built on someone else's case study does not survive a CFO's first question.

Most AI-DLC productivity claims travel by press release, not by this organisation's own delivery data. A steering committee asks one question first — how do you know that applies to us — and a case built on a borrowed benchmark has no answer.

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Borrowed benchmarks, not your economicsPublicly reported AI-DLC productivity multiples, including early case studies citing double-digit gains, describe someone else's delivery organisation. A business case built on them does not withstand scrutiny.

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One number, no rangeA single optimistic productivity assumption produces a single optimistic payback period. Without a conservative-to-aggressive range, the case has no answer for "what if we're wrong."

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Coordination cost ignoredRaw AI speed gains rarely survive contact with mob rituals, review cycles, and rework. A model that doesn't net out overhead overstates the benefit before day one.

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Capacity freed mistaken for headcount cutTime freed by AI-DLC adoption is a reinvestment figure, not a redundancy plan. Presenting it as the latter damages trust with the delivery teams the transition depends on.

How It Works

The business case, built from your own numbers.

Six tabs. Your current-state baseline, three productivity scenarios, and the sensitivity view that shows exactly which assumption the case is most exposed to.

Current-State BaselineTeam cost, cycle time, throughput, and time allocation sourced from finance cost-centre data and delivery tooling, not headcount estimates

Productivity AssumptionsFive SDLC activities, each with Conservative, Moderate, and Aggressive multipliers plus a Custom override, net of mob ritual overhead

Projection ModelCapacity freed, cycle-time compression, and net annual benefit calculated automatically against the active scenario

Scenario & Sensitivity EngineConservative, Moderate, and Aggressive recalculated side by side, with a ranked view of which single assumption moves NPV most

Payback, ROI & NPVBoard-ready payback period, Year-1 ROI, and multi-year NPV, discounted at this organisation's own cost of capital

Key Term

Mob Ritual Overhead: The coordination cost — planning, review, and ritual time — deducted from a raw AI-DLC productivity multiplier before it is applied, so the business case never assumes speed gains are captured at zero coordination cost.

What's Inside

Every tab, explained.

Two tabs take your inputs. Four are locked and calculate automatically — including a print-ready dashboard for the boardroom.

TAB 1

Instructions

How to populate the baseline, select a scenario, and interpret payback, ROI, and NPV

TAB 2

Settings

Every assumption in one place: multipliers, overhead, rework rates, tooling cost, transition investment

TAB 3

Current-State Baseline

Team composition, cycle time, throughput, and time allocation — the foundation the case is built on

TAB 4

AI-DLC Projection Model

Locked and calculated: capacity freed, compressed cycle time, and net annual benefit by activity

TAB 5

Sensitivity & Scenario

Conservative / Moderate / Aggressive comparison, a ranked sensitivity table, and a break-even multiplier finder

TAB 6

Dashboard

Single-page, print-ready summary for direct presentation to a CFO or steering committee

Payback

Break-even period in months

Year-1 ROI

Net benefit as % of transition investment

NPV

Net present value over the analysis horizon

FTE Capacity

Reinvestment figure, not a headcount target

Who It's For

Built for the people who have to defend the number.

Programme Managers & VPs Engineering

Turn this organisation's own delivery data into a payback, ROI, and NPV case that survives Finance scrutiny, without hard-coding someone else's productivity claim.

CFOs & FP&A Partners

Review an AI-DLC investment case built on your organisation's own cost-centre data and discount rate, with a transparent view of which assumption it is most exposed to.

Management Consultants

Build a repeatable, defensible AI-DLC business case for clients without constructing a financial model from scratch for every engagement.

Feeds from: the AI-DLC Adoption Readiness Assessment confirms the organisation is ready to transition before this business case is built.

View Readiness Assessment →

Frequently Asked

Questions buyers ask before building their business case.

What does the AI-DLC ROI & Business Case Model produce?

Payback period, Year-1 ROI, and multi-year NPV, calculated from this organisation's own current-state delivery costs and a Conservative, Moderate, and Aggressive productivity range — with a sensitivity view showing exactly which assumption the case is most exposed to.

How is this different from the AI Investment ROI Model?

The AI Investment ROI Model builds a general AI investment case from cost and benefit figures you provide directly. This model is scoped specifically to an AI-DLC delivery transition: it starts from your actual team composition, cycle time, and time allocation, and calculates the productivity shift itself, activity by activity.

Does this replace the need for pilot data?

No. It is designed to be a living model. Conservative, Moderate, and Aggressive assumptions are meant to be replaced with measured Bolt-level data as pilots complete, not treated as a one-time calculation.

Can the FTE-equivalent capacity released be used to justify headcount reduction?

No. It is deliberately framed as a reinvestment figure — capacity freed for higher-value work — not a redundancy justification. Using it that way misrepresents what the model calculates and risks the credibility of the wider AI-DLC transition.

AI-DLC ROI & Business Case Model

Turn this organisation's own delivery economics into a board-ready business case for AI-DLC adoption — payback period, Year-1 ROI, and multi-year NPV.

Get the Business Case Model →